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Going for Gold: Predicting the Oscars 2011

Ethos

February 25, 2011

Going for Gold: Predicting the Oscars 2011

Review by Spencer Gordon
Illustration by Suji Paek
Photo provided by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

With the show on Sunday, it’s time to predict this year’s Academy Awards. I was fortunate enough to see all of the Best Picture nominees along with eighty percent of the acting nominees so I hope I can help you award show gamblers out there make some money come Oscar night. Be warned, however: for the first time in the last three years, there isn’t a clear favorite, making predicting this year’s winners much more difficult (but also more exciting). With this in mind, for the following review not only will you get my predictions, but also my thoughts on who is the most deserved of the nominees, whether they’re predicted to win or not.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale in The Fighter
John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech

Prediction: Christian Bale
Bale has been sweeping up most of the awards for this category after his performance in The Fighter as Mark Wahlberg’s drug-addicted brother. Bale did turn in a great performance after transforming his body, after films like The Dark Knight and Terminator Salvation, by cutting a lot of weight to play a drug addict. Also, we have never seen a character like this from Bale and the Academy likes it when actors step out of their comfort zone and achieve success. The same sort of thing happened with Sean Penn in Milk and Forrest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland, as both actors were known for taking on much different roles before their award winning performances.
Deserved: Geoffrey Rush
I have seen everyone’s fine performances in this category and to me the best performance came from Pirates of the Caribbean’s Geoffrey Rush. In The King’s Speech, Rush plays opposite Colin Firth as a speaking instructor who, in my opinion, steals the show. We will get into main acting category later, but after I left Speech I couldn’t help but just be jazzed at how well Rush did in the film. He demands your sympathy, and you immediately care for him as a character. I also think Rush deserves this award because supporting nominees tend to be on the darker side of things, as illustrated by Bale’s depressing crack addicted brother, Hawkes’ grungy backwoods hardass, Renner’s evil bank robber, and Ruffalo’s home wrecker. Rush, on the other hand, portrays a good person and someone to root for and who doesn’t like that?

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom

Prediction: Melissa Leo
Like Bale, Leo has been winning almost all of the awards as her portrayal of Wahlberg’s mother in The Fighter. (It seems that people are finally starting to recognize that The Fighter is only filled with good acting and that the story and direction weren’t actually that good.) Although I didn’t really like Leo’s character in The Fighter—I thought she was a slug and I didn’t root for her at any time—there is no denying that her performance was still quite good, causing us to feel sympathy as well as She looks nothing like she usually does in this film and her dialect and words seem genuine East Coast, but most importantly, the Academy loves giving a veteran such as Leo her first Oscar.
Deserved: Hailee Steinfeld
If there is one upset on Oscar night that I am truly hoping for, it is in this category because Steinfeld truly deserves winning this award for her portrayal of Annie Ross in True Grit. Not only does she steal the show from powerhouses Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon, and Josh Brolin with great one-liners all delivered with terrific poise, but it was also her first screen appearance. Oh and she was thirteen when making this film.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours

Prediction: Colin Firth
A lot like Bale, Firth has been winning most of the smaller awards for his portrayal of King George VI in The King’s Speech. To his credit Firth does an excellent job but like I hinted earlier, Rush did effectively stole the show from the King. The blogs, however, praise Firth’s performance over Rush’s. There’s also the fact that Firth’s portrayal is the type Oscar voters love: a period piece of an important historical figure.
Deserved: James Franco
The best performance of the year, hands down. Franco was born to portray Aron Ralston, the rock climber who got stuck in a small crevasse deep in the canyons of Utah. Franco delivered just as good of a performance as Christoph Waltz last year when he surprised everyone with his performance as Hans Landa in Inglourious Basterds. Unfortunately, Waltz was met with universal acclaim, as Franco’s performance hasn’t. Along with Franco, however, I must also give credit to Eisenberg in The Social Network since he finally broke away from his Michael Cera similarities. Still, 127 Hours needed a great performance for it to be as good as it was, and Franco delivered.

Best Actress

Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

Prediction: Natalie Portman
Along with the current pattern, Portman has been winning everything. Voters and other awards have been heralding Portman for stepping out of her comfort zone and providing a chilling performance as a ballerina who slowly loses her sanity. Portman showed a lot of different emotions throughout the film that the blogs have been responding to with praise. The only thing against this performance is that the film is sort of catered to a different generation than that of the Oscar voters.
Deserved: Natalie Portman
Granted, I have only seen three of the performances in this category, but of those three, Portman is the best making this the first category that I agree with the outcome. Portman’s was the most engaging performance of the others featured in this section. Bening is very good in The Kids Are All Right and I was sort of bouncing back and forth between the two actresses, but at the end of the day, Portman put Black Swan on her back and truly delivered a performance that redefines her career.

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year by Mike Leigh
The Fighter by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
Inception by Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
The King’s Speech by David Seidler

Prediction: The King’s Speech
This film has been gaining a lot of momentum as we get closer and closer to Oscar night. Roger Ebert even said that the film would probably win all to most of the categories that it’s nominated for. Although there is another script that I believe completely deserves this category, The King’s Speech will probably triumph in the end.
Deserved: Inception
Despite its similarities to The Matrix—which was released just a year earlier before Chris Nolan began writing Inception—this film was the most original idea I have seen in a very long time. The script, which took ten years to write, provided the foundation for one of the best films of the year. Nolan’s films have not been receiving nearly enough love from the Academy, and that seriously needs to change. Hopefully the success and (most likely) sheer brilliance that will come with The Dark Knight Rises will finally give Nolan his coveted Oscar.

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network by Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 by Michael Arndt. Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Winter’s Bone by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Prediction: The Social Network
Aaron Sorkin has been a prestigious writer his whole career, responsible for successful episodes of The West Wing as well as for A Few Good Men, but its his adaptation of Ben Mezrich’s novel The Accidental Billionaires that captures all of his best traits. Sorkin has already won a number of awards this season and I don’t see him being shut out come Oscar night.
Deserved: The Social Network
Not only did Sorkin’s script create my favorite film of the year, it also provoked me to read both the script and the book. The script didn’t have any unneeded scenes or unnecessary dialogue. For this not to win would be the biggest upset of the night.

Best Director

Black Swan by Darren Aronofsky
The Fighter by David O. Russell
The King’s Speech by Tom Hooper
The Social Network by David Fincher
True Grit by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Prediction: The King’s Speech
This prediction takes me a bit by surprise. Every ceremony thus far has recognized The Social Network director David Fincher, but according to blogs and other sources covering the Oscars, Tom Hooper of The King’s Speech is now said to have the award in the bag. I have to go with the predictors on this one if only because Fincher himself said he doesn’t understand why The Social Network has been getting so much buzz.
Deserved: The Social Network
Well, Mr. Fincher, let me tell you why you deserve all of the praise you’ve been receiving. Your film was the best of the year, you were able to bring brilliant performances out of two people that are not known for them (Eisenberg and pop star Justin Timberlake), and the pacing and style of the film is something that has been unmatched by any other film this year. Fincher, whether you like it or not, you produced an amazing film that arguably defines a generation. Stop being so humble.

Best Picture

Prediction: The King’s Speech
Once again it is the same situation as in the director category. The Social Network has been cleaning house most of the award season, but predictors and websites are currently saying The King’s Speech will take home the Academy Award. Like the directing category, I feel as if it could go either way with this film and…
Deserved: The Social Network
The best film of the year deserves the Oscar. So many people, including myself, love this film, as illustrated by the vast amounts of praise it has won. However, with a very young cast and a storyline that can be viewed as left wing, The Social Network doesn’t seem to please everyone involved with the final decision.
If this doesn’t win, dark horses Inception and 127 Hours would also be justified, a divide that’s reminiscent of last year’s show where The Hurt Locker deserved the Oscar, but Inglourious Basterds or Up would also have been worthwhile wins.

Like what you read? See what films Spencer has reviewed.